ࡱ> }|q`bjbjqPqP*::(Rz"z"z"z".#LG#p%p%p%p%p%:%% 1F3F3F3F3F3F3F$HhTK\WFY1p%p%11WFp%p%GK?K?K?1p%p%1FK?11FK?K?5DEp%z# [)z"5:.QE" F$G0GsE"Kc=KDEKEx%xB)zK?+-%%%WFWFA? %%%G1111z"z"  !!!/ -'!/ ( -:>=><8:0 ?5@5E>4=>3> ?5@8>40 1 <>4C;L 2009/1033. @5?>4020B5;L  .. >?>2,  HYPERLINK mailto:popovv54@online.ru vpopov@nes.ru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http://www.nes.ru/~vpopov/Courses.html" http://www.nes.ru/~vpopov/Courses.html >8 AB0BL8 -  HYPERLINK "http://www.nes.ru/~vpopov/MainResearchPapers.html" http://www.nes.ru/~vpopov/MainResearchPapers.html "5<0 1. "5>@8O ?5@5E>4=>3> ?5@8>40 8 8B>38 @5D>@<. -:>=><8G5A:89 @>AB 2 ?5@5E>4=KE M:>=><8:0E 8 ?>;8BM:>=><8O @5D>@<. >;B5@>28G .. =AB8BCF8>=0;L=K5 ;>2CH:8 8 M:>=><8G5A:85 @5D>@<K, -:>=><8:0 8 <0B5<0B8G5A:85 <5B>4K, 1999, B. 35, 2K?.2. Godoy, Sergio, Joseph Stiglitz. Growth, Initial Conditions, Law and Speed of Privatization in Transition Countries: 11 Years Later. 2004. ( HYPERLINK "http://www2.gsb.columbia.edu/faculty/jstiglitz/download/website/Growth_Initial_Conditions_Law_and_Speed.htm" http://www2.gsb.columbia.edu/faculty/jstiglitz/download/website/Growth_Initial_Conditions_Law_and_Speed.htm). Popov, Vladimir. Shock Therapy Versus Gradualism: The End of the Debate (Explaining the Magnitude of the Transformational Recession), Comparative Economic Studies, No. 1, Vol.42, Spring 2000, pp. 1-57 ( HYPERLINK "http://www.nes.ru/~vpopov/documents/TR-REC-full.pdf" http://www.nes.ru/~vpopov/documents/TR-REC-full.pdf); In Russian  >?>2 . 8=0<8:0 ?@>872>4AB20 ?@8 ?5@5E>45 : @K=:C: 2;8O=85 >1J5:B82=KE CA;>289 8 M:>=><8G5A:>9 ?>;8B8:8 (>?@>AK M:>=><8:8, 1998, ! 7); !8;L=K5 8=AB8BCBK 206=55 A:>@>AB8 @5D>@< (>?@>AK M:>=><8:8, 1998, ! 8). *Popov, V.  HYPERLINK "http://http-server.carleton.ca/~vpopov/documents/Shock%20vs%20grad%20reconsidered%20-15%20years%20after%20-%20CES,%202007.pdf" Shock Therapy versus Gradualism Reconsidered: Lessons from Transition Economies after 15 Years of Reforms. - Comparative Economic Studies, HYPERLINK "http://http-server.carleton.ca/~vpopov/documents/Shock%20vs%20grad%20reconsidered%20-15%20years%20after%20-%20CES,%202007.pdf" Vol.49, Issue 1, March 2007, pp. 1-31.In Russian:  HYPERLINK "file:///G:\\WEB-SITE-POPOV\\documents\\SHOCKvsTHER-Russian-2006-VoprEkon.pdf" (>:>B5@0?8O ?@>B82 3@04C0;87<0 15 ;5B A?CABO: ?>G5<C 48=0<8:0 ?@>872>4AB20 2 AB@0=0E A ?5@5E>4=>9 M:>=><8:>9 1K;0 =5>48=0:>2>9. - >?@>AK M:>=><8:8, ! 5, 2007. Campos, Nauro F. BACK TO THE FUTURE: THE GROWTH PROSPECTS OF TRANSITION ECONOMIES RECONSIDERED. Center for European Integration Studies, August 2000 ( HYPERLINK http://www.zei.de/download/zei_wp/B00-13.pdf http://www.zei.de/download/zei_wp/B00-13.pdf). See also: G.A. Cornia, V. Popov. Structural and Institutional Factors in the Transition to the Market Economy. In: Transition and Institutions - The Experience of Gradual and Late Reformers. Edited by Giovanni Andrea Cornia and Vladimir Popov. OUP, 2001, pp. 3-28 ( HYPERLINK http://www.oup.co.uk/pdf/0-19-924218-6.pdf http://www.oup.co.uk/pdf/0-19-924218-6.pdf). Popov, V. Reform Strategies and Economic Performance of Russia s Regions.  World Development, 2001, ! 1( HYPERLINK "http://www.nes.ru/~vpopov/documents/Regions_Apr2000.pdf" http://www.nes.ru/~vpopov/documents/Regions_Apr2000.pdf). For a short Russian version see: Mirovaya Ekonomika i Mezhdunarodniye Otnosheniya (MEiMO), No.9, 2000; NG-Politekonomiya, Sept. 12, 2000 ( HYPERLINK "http://www.nes.ru/~vpopov/documents/NGRegions-%2012-09-2000.htm" http://www.nes.ru/~vpopov/documents/NGRegions-%2012-09-2000.htm). *EBRD Transition Report, 1999, Ch. 5, 6. *M. Castanheira, M., Popov, V. Framework Paper on the Political Economy of Growth in Transition Countries. EERC, 2000 ( HYPERLINK "http://www.nes.ru/~vpopov/documents/PolEconGrowthCasta-Popov.pdf" http://www.nes.ru/~vpopov/documents/PolEconGrowthCasta-Popov.pdf). *Roland, Gerard. Transition and Economics: Politics, Markets, and Firms. MIT Press. Cambridge, MA, London, 2000, ch. 1,2,3,13. Pomfret, R., Growth and Transition: Why has Chinas Performance Been So Different? Journal of Comparative Economics Vol. 25, No 3, December 1997. Pp. 422-440. "5<0 2. 1I0O >F5=:0 3>@10G52A:8E @5D>@<. 0:@>M:>=><8G5A:0O ?>;8B8:0 2 ?5@5E>4=K9 ?5@8>4: K=C645==K5 A15@565=8O 2 ?5@8>4 3>@10G52A:8E @5D>@< (1985-91). @8@>40 8=D;OF88 2 90-5 3>4K. *IMF, World Bank, OECD, EBRD. A Study of the Soviet Economy, 1991, Vol. 1,2,3, Ch. III.1 - III.3. *World Development Report. From Plan to Market. World Bank, 1996, Ch. 1,2, 6,7. Popov, V. The Rise and Fall of the Non-monetary Economy in Russia: Puzzles Multiply Faster Than Resolved. Review of D. Woodruffs book Money Unmade. Barter and the Fate of Russian Capitalism. Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, May 2001 ( HYPERLINK "http://www.nes.ru/~vpopov/documents/Woodruff-review-JPAM-2001-2.pdf" http://www.nes.ru/~vpopov/documents/Woodruff-review-JPAM-2001-2.pdf) . *!5@359 C@852, ;048<8@ >?>2. PRIVATE"@5E3;020O 384@0 15745=56LO. 5?;0B568, 10@B5@, 45=56=K5 AC@@>30BK: >B:C40 >=8 27O;8AL 2 >AA88 8 :0: A =8<8 1>@>BLAO. - -:A?5@B, #9 (269) >B 5 <0@B0 2001. >;=K9 B5:AB:  HYPERLINK "http://www.nes.ru/~vpopov/documents/Barter&non-paym-2001Guriev.pdf" http://www.nes.ru/~vpopov/documents/Barter&non-paym-2001Guriev.pdf EBRD Transition Report, 1997, Ch. 1,2,7. "5<0 3. 0:@>M:>=><8G5A:0O ?>;8B8:0 2 ?5@5E>4=K9 ?5@8>4 (?@>4>;65=85): 0;NB=K5 :@878AK. *Montes, Manuel and Popov, Vladimir. The Asian Crisis Turns Global. Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore, 1999. In Russian  >=B5A, ., >?>2 . 780BA:89 28@CA 8;8 3>;;0=4A:0O 1>;57=L? "5>@8O 8 8AB>@8O 20;NB=KE :@878A>2 2 >AA88 8 4@C38E AB@0=0E. ., 740B5;LAB2> 5;>, 1999. See also: Popov, Vladimir. Currency crises in Russia and other transition economies. - In: International Financial Governance under Stress. Global Structures versus National Imperatives. Edited by Geoffrey R. D. Underhill, Xiaoke Zhang, Cambridge University Press, 2003 ( HYPERLINK "http://www.nes.ru/~vpopov/documents/CC-Atlanta-2001.pdf" http://www.nes.ru/~vpopov/documents/CC-Atlanta-2001.pdf). *EBRD Transition Report, 1998, Ch. 1,2,3. Stiglitz, Joseph E. Capital Market Liberalization, Economic Growth, and Instability. World Development, Volume 28 (6) 2000, pp. 1075 1086. "5<0 4. !B@C:BC@=0O ?5@5AB@>9:0 8 ?@><KH;5==0O ?>;8B8:0. *Rodrik, D.  HYPERLINK "http://ksghome.harvard.edu/~drodrik/Chinaexports.pdf" What's So Special About China's Exports? January 2006. *World Development Report. From Plan to Market. World Bank, 1996, Ch. 8. *>?>2, .  HYPERLINK "http://www.nes.ru/~vpopov/documents/China-industrial%20policy%20-%20Prognozis.pdf" "%/ -'! '#. Popov, Vladimir. Will Russia Achieve Fast Economic Growth? - Communist Economies and Economic Transformation, Vol. 10, No. 4, 1998, pp.421-49. Russia: Inconsistent Shock Therapy with Weakening Institutions. In: Transition and Institutions: The Experience of Late Reformers. Ed. By G. A. Cornia and V. Popov.Oxford University Press, 2001. *EBRD Transition Report, 1997, Ch. 3-6. "5<0 5. =5H=5M:>=><8G5A:85 A2O78 2 ?5@5E>4=K9 ?5@8>4. *Gregory, Paul and Stuart, Robert. Russian and Soviet Economic Performance and Structure. Harper Collins College Publisher, 6th edition, 1998, ch. 9 IMF, World Bank, OECD, EBRD. A Study of the Soviet Economy, 1991, Vol. 1,2,3, ch. III.4, IV.3-IV.4; Appendix II.3, II.4. *Lavigne, Marie. Conditions for Accession to the EU. Comparative Economic Studies, Fall 1998, Vol. 30, No. 3, pp. 38-57. Lavigne, Marie. The Economics of Transition. From Socialist Economy to Market Economy. MacMillan Press Ltd., 1999, ch. 6 (Transition through breaking up). Olcott, Martha B., Aslund, Anders, and Garnet, Sherman W. Getting It Wrong. Regional Cooperation and the Commonwealth of Independent States. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington, D.C., 1999, ch. 2. *EBRD Transition Report, 1997, Ch. 3-6; 2001, Ch.5. "5<0 6. @820B870F8O. @548B=>-D8=0=A>20O A8AB5<0, :>=B@>;L =04 :>@?>@0F8O<8 8 D8=0=A8@>20=85 8=25AB8F89. *World Development Report. From Plan to Market. World Bank, 1996, Ch. 3, 6. *Popov, V. The Financial System in Russia as Compared to Other Transition Economies: The Anglo- American versus The German-Japanese Model - Comparative Economic Studies , No. 1, 1999 ( HYPERLINK "http://www.nes.ru/~vpopov/documents/FINSYS.pdf" http://www.nes.ru/~vpopov/documents/FINSYS.pdf). In Russian  >?>2, . >=AB@C:B>@ 4;O D8=0=A8AB0. -:A?5@B, 10 >:BO1@O 1999 ( HYPERLINK "http://www.nes.ru/~vpopov/documents/Konstruktor%20dlya%20finansysta.pdf" http://www.nes.ru/~vpopov/documents/Konstruktor%20dlya%20finansysta.pdf). *EBRD Transition Report, 1998, Ch. 5-8. Roland, Gerard. Transition and Economics: Politics, Markets, and Firms. MIT Press. Cambridge, MA, London, 2000, ch. 4,10, 12. "5<0 7. !>F80;L=0O AD5@0 2 ?5@5E>4=K9 ?5@8>4 *0?5;NH=8:>2 . . >AA89A:89 @K=>: B@C40: 040?B0F8O 157 @5AB@C:BC@870F88. ., # (-, 20013., 3;.2 (A. 157-198). *G.A. Cornia. Transition Approaches, Institutions and Income Inequality. In: HYPERLINK "http://www.oup.co.uk/isbn/0-19-924218-6"Transition and Institutions: The Experience of Gradual and Late Reformers. Edited by HYPERLINK "../whoswho/cornia.htm"Giovanni Andrea Cornia and Vladimir Popov. WIDER, OUP, 2001. Ch. 12 *Cornia, A. (1997). Labor Market Shocks, Psychological Stress and the Transitions Mortality Crisis. WIDER/UNU, Helsinki, April 1997. Shapiro, J.(1995). The Russian mortality crisis and its causes. In: Aslund A, ed. Russian economic reform at risk. London: Pinter, 1995. * HYPERLINK "http://www.nes.ru/~vpopov/documents/Mortality-births-2006.pdf" 0@04>:AK 45<>3@0D88. >G5<C >AA8O AB8<C;8@C5B @>6405<>ABL, 0 8B09 55 >3@0=8G8205B? ->;8B8G5A:89 6C@=0;, HYPERLINK "http://www.nes.ru/~vpopov/documents/Mortality-births-2006.pdf" !22 (117) / 19 8N=O 20063. *  HYPERLINK "http://www.nes.ru/%7Evpopov/documents/Mortality-Expert-12-05-08.pdf" >@ 157 !0 8 FC=0<8. - -:A?5@B, !19 (608), 12 <0O 20083.  >?@>AK 8 7040G8 : M:70<5=0<: >?@>AK ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 'B> B0:>5 B@0=AD>@<0F8>==K9 A?04? 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