ࡱ> q`bjbjqPqP.::";444447|0 ::::< 6666666$ 9hq;^62(2(2(6::G7...2(::6.2(6..r 5T5:$ rt4*t5|6 ]70752;-;558;53.m"$33366h.33372(2(2(2(D44  NEW ECONOMIC SCHOOL Course outline ECONOMICS OF TRANSITION (September October 2009) Instructor:  HYPERLINK "http://www.nes.ru/english/people/faculty/personal/Popov.htm" Vladimir Popov  HYPERLINK "mailto:vpopov@nes.ru" vpopov@nes.ru (office 2114) The overall aim of this course is to understand the processes of transition from a socialist centrally planned economy to a capitalist market-type economy, using the Russian economy as the primary example. Extensive comparisons will be made with the experience of other economies in transition.PRIVATE  We shall examine current transition problems, such as macroeconomic stabilization and industrial policy, privatization strategy and experience, emerging banking and financial systems. GRADING SCHEME: Mid-term exam - in the beginning of October, covering roughly first half of the material, 40% of the grade for the course; final exam at the end of the course, covering all material - 60% of the grade for the course. There is no make-up for the mid-term; for those students that miss the mid-term with a reasonable excuse the final exam will be assigned a weight of 100% There will be 2 questions (40% of the grade each) and 1 problem (20% of the grade) at the exams. To receive a satisfactory grade one has to score more than 50 points out of 100. 50 points and less is an unsatisfactory grade. List of questions and problems at the end of the Russian version of the program. Answers that demonstrate the ability of critical thinking would be given higher marks than answers that reproduce word by word any existing text. Course materials at my site:  HYPERLINK "http://www.nes.ru/~vpopov/Courses.html" http://www.nes.ru/~vpopov/Courses.html My papers -  HYPERLINK "http://www.nes.ru/~vpopov/MainResearchPapers.html" http://www.nes.ru/~vpopov/MainResearchPapers.html 1. Transition theory and growth in transition economies. Political economy of reforms. In Russian - Polterovich V. Institutional traps and economic reforms. Economics and Mathematical methods, 1999, 35. *Godoy, Sergio, Joseph Stiglitz. Growth, Initial Conditions, Law and Speed of Privatization in Transition Countries: 11 Years Later. 2004. ( HYPERLINK "http://www2.gsb.columbia.edu/faculty/jstiglitz/download/website/Growth_Initial_Conditions_Law_and_Speed.htm" http://www2.gsb.columbia.edu/faculty/jstiglitz/download/website/Growth_Initial_Conditions_Law_and_Speed.htm). Stiglitz, Joseph E. WHITHER REFORM? Ten Years of the Transition. WORLD BANK ANNUAL BANK CONFERENCE ON DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS, 1999. Keynote Address, World Bank ( HYPERLINK "http://www2.gsb.columbia.edu/faculty/jstiglitz/download/1999_4_Wither_Reform.pdf" http://www2.gsb.columbia.edu/faculty/jstiglitz/download/1999_4_Wither_Reform.pdf) Fischer, Stanley and Sahay, Ratna. Taking Stock. Finance & Development, September 2000, Volume 37, Number 3 ( HYPERLINK http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2000/09/fischer.htm http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2000/09/fischer.htm). The full version is at ( HYPERLINK http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2000/wp0030.pdf http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2000/wp0030.pdf) IMF Working Paper WP/00/30. slund, Anders. Why Has Russias Economic Transformation Been So Arduous? Paper prepared for the Annual World Bank Conference on Development Economics, Washington, D.C., April 28-30, 1999 ( HYPERLINK "http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=201" http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=201) Popov, Vladimir. Shock Therapy Versus Gradualism: The End of the Debate (Explaining the Magnitude of the Transformational Recession), Comparative Economic Studies, No. 1, Vol.42, Spring 2000, pp. 1-57 ( HYPERLINK "http://www.nes.ru/~vpopov/documents/TR-REC-full.pdf" http://www.nes.ru/~vpopov/documents/TR-REC-full.pdf); In Russian Popov V. Production dynamics in the period of transition: initial conditions versus economic policy. ( Voprosy Ekonomiky, 1998, ! 7); Strong institutions are more important than the speed of reforms (Voprosy Ekonomiky, 1998, ! 8); *Popov, V.  HYPERLINK "http://http-server.carleton.ca/~vpopov/documents/Shock%20vs%20grad%20reconsidered%20-15%20years%20after%20-%20CES,%202007.pdf" Shock Therapy versus Gradualism Reconsidered: Lessons from Transition Economies after 15 Years of Reforms. - Comparative Economic Studies, HYPERLINK "http://http-server.carleton.ca/~vpopov/documents/Shock%20vs%20grad%20reconsidered%20-15%20years%20after%20-%20CES,%202007.pdf" Vol.49, Issue 1, March 2007, pp. 1-31.In Russian:  HYPERLINK "file:///G:\\WEB-SITE-POPOV\\documents\\SHOCKvsTHER-Russian-2006-VoprEkon.pdf" (>:>B5@0?8O ?@>B82 3@04C0;87<0 15 ;5B A?CABO: ?>G5<C 48=0<8:0 ?@>872>4AB20 2 AB@0=0E A ?5@5E>4=>9 M:>=><8:>9 1K;0 =5>48=0:>2>9. - >?@>AK M:>=><8:8, ! 5, 2007. Campos, Nauro F. BACK TO THE FUTURE: THE GROWTH PROSPECTS OF TRANSITION ECONOMIES RECONSIDERED. Center for European Integration Studies, August 2000 ( HYPERLINK "http://www.zei.de/download/zei_wp/B00-13.pdf" http://www.zei.de/download/zei_wp/B00-13.pdf). Popov, V. Reform Strategies and Economic Performance of Russia's Regions. - World Development 2001, No 1 ( HYPERLINK "http://www.nes.ru/~vpopov/documents/Regions_Apr2000.pdf" http://www.nes.ru/~vpopov/documents/Regions_Apr2000.pdf). For a short Russian version see: Mirovaya Ekonomika i Mezhdunarodniye Otnosheniya (MEiMO), No.9, 2000; NG-Politekonomiya, Sept. 12, 2000 ( HYPERLINK "http://www.nes.ru/~vpopov/documents/NGRegions-%2012-09-2000.htm" http://www.nes.ru/~vpopov/documents/NGRegions-%2012-09-2000.htm). * EBRD Transition report, 1999, Ch. 5, 6. * M. Castanheira, M., Popov, V. Framework Paper on the Political Economy of Growth in Transition Countries. EERC, 2000 ( HYPERLINK "http://www.nes.ru/~vpopov/documents/PolEconGrowthCasta-Popov.pdf" http://www.nes.ru/~vpopov/documents/PolEconGrowthCasta-Popov.pdf). Roland, Gerard. Transition and Economics: Politics, Markets, and Firms. MIT Press. Cambridge, MA, London, 2000, ch. 1,2,3,13. Pomfret, R., Growth and transition: Why has Chinas performance been so different? Journal of Comparative Economics, Vol. 25, No 3, December 1997. Pp. 422-440. 2. Monetary overhang during Gorbachev reforms (1985-91). * IMF, World Bank, OECD, EBRD. A Study of the Soviet Economy, 1991, Vol. 1,2,3, Ch. III.1 - III.3. World Development Report. From Plan to Market. World Bank, 1996, Ch. 1,2, 6,7. Popov, V. The Rise and Fall of the Non-monetary Economy in Russia: Puzzles Multiply Faster Than Resolved. Review of D. Woodruff's book "Money Unmade. Barter and the Fate of Russian Capitalism". - Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, May 2001 ( HYPERLINK "http://www.nes.ru/~vpopov/documents/Woodruff-review-JPAM-2001-2.pdf" http://www.nes.ru/~vpopov/documents/Woodruff-review-JPAM-2001-2.pdf). * Guriev S., Popov V. Three-head hydra of demonetization. Non-payment, barter, money substitutes: how they appeared in Russia and how we can fight with them. - Expert, #9 (269), 5 March 2001 ( HYPERLINK "http://www.nes.ru/~vpopov/documents/Barter&non-paym-2001Guriev.pdf" http://www.nes.ru/~vpopov/documents/Barter&non-paym-2001Guriev.pdf). EBRD Transition Report, 1997, Ch. 1,2,7; 1998, Ch. 1,2,3. 3. Macroeconomic policy in the period of transition. Currency crises. *Montes, Manuel and Popov, Vladimir. The Asian Crisis Turns Global. Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore, 1999. In Russian Montes ., Popov V. "Asian virus" or "Dutch disease"? The theory and history of currency crises in Russia and other countries. ., "Delo Publishers", 1999. See also: Popov, Vladimir. Currency crises in Russia and other transition economies. - In: International Financial Governance under Stress. Global Structures versus National Imperatives. Edited by Geoffrey R. D. Underhill, Xiaoke Zhang, Cambridge University Press, 2003 ( HYPERLINK "http://www.nes.ru/~vpopov/documents/CC-Atlanta-2001.pdf" http://www.nes.ru/~vpopov/documents/CC-Atlanta-2001.pdf). EBRD Transition Report, 1997, Ch. 1,2,7; 1998, Ch. 1,2,3. Stiglitz, Joseph E. Capital Market Liberalization, Economic Growth, and Instability. World Development, Volume 28 (6) 2000, pp. 1075 - 1086. Rodrik, Dani. The Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth. October 2008 ( HYPERLINK "http://ksghome.harvard.edu/~drodrik/RER%20and%20growth.pdf" http://ksghome.harvard.edu/~drodrik/RER%20and%20growth.pdf). Polterovich, V., V Popov.  HYPERLINK "file:///W:\\Faculty\\Users\\VladimirPopov\\Nes-eerc-Ӱԭ\\Accumulation%20of%20Foreign%20Exchange%20Reserves%20and%20Long%20Term%20Economic%20Growth.%20%20In:%20Slavic%20Eurasia's%20Integration%20into%20the%20World%20Economy.%20Ed.%20By%20S.%20Tabata%20and%20A.%20Iwashita.%20Slavic%20Research%20Center,%20Hokkaido%20University,%20Sapporo,%202004.%20Updated%20version,%202006%20%20-%20http:\\http-server.carleton.ca\\~vpopov\\MainResearchPapers.html" Accumulation of Foreign Exchange Reserves and Long Term Economic Growth. In: Slavic Eurasias Integration into the World Economy. Ed. By S. Tabata and A. Iwashita. Slavic Research Center, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, 2004. Updated version, 2006 - http://http-server.carleton.ca/~vpopov/MainResearchPapers.html 4. Industrial restructuring, industrial policy. *Rodrik, D.  HYPERLINK "http://ksghome.harvard.edu/~drodrik/Chinaexports.pdf" What's So Special About China's Exports? January 2006. *World Development Report. From Plan to Market. World Bank, 1996, Ch. 8. *>?>2, .  HYPERLINK "http://www.nes.ru/~vpopov/documents/China-industrial%20policy%20-%20Prognozis.pdf" "%/ -'! '#. Popov, Vladimir. Will Russia Achieve Fast Economic Growth? - Communist Economies and Economic Transformation, Vol. 10, No. 4, 1998, pp.421-49. *Popov, V.  HYPERLINK "http://http-server.carleton.ca/~vpopov/documents/FDI-BRIC-Nov%202006-revised.pdf" FDI in Russia: Why Doesn't it Come? Should There Be More of It? - Canadian Foreign Policy, Vol. 13, No.2, 2006 ( HYPERLINK "http://http-server.carleton.ca/~vpopov/documents/FDI-BRIC-Nov%202006-revised.pdf" http://http-server.carleton.ca/~vpopov/documents/FDI-BRIC-Nov%202006-revised.pdf). * Polterovich, V., V. Popov.  HYPERLINK "http://http-server.carleton.ca/~vpopov/documents/NewWorldEconomicOrder.pdf" Stages of Development, Economic Policies and NewWorld  HYPERLINK "http://http-server.carleton.ca/~vpopov/documents/NewWorldEconomicOrder.pdf" Economic Order (co-authored with V. Polterovich). Paper presented  HYPERLINK "http://http-server.carleton.ca/~vpopov/documents/NewWorldEconomicOrder.pdf" at the  HYPERLINK "http://http-server.carleton.ca/~vpopov/documents/NewWorldEconomicOrder.pdf" Seventh Annual Global Development Conference in St.  HYPERLINK "Petersburg, Russia. January 2006 (http://http- server.carleton.ca/~vpopov/documents/NewWorldEconomicOrder.pdf)." Petersburg, Russia. January 2006 (http://http- server.carleton.ca/~vpopov/documents/NewWorldEconomicOrder.pdf). *EBRD Transition Report, 1997, Ch. 3-6. * Popov, V.  HYPERLINK "http://http-server.carleton.ca/~vpopov/documents/NLR-April2007-Popov-Woods.pdf" RUSSIA REDUX?-  HYPERLINK "http://http-server.carleton.ca/~vpopov/documents/NLR-April2007-Popov-Woods.pdf" NewLeft Review, No. 44, March-April 2007  ( HYPERLINK "http://http-server.carleton.ca/~vpopov/documents/NLR-April2007-Popov-Woods.pdf" http://http-server.carleton.ca/~vpopov/documents/NLR-April2007-Popov-Woods.pdf) *Popov, V.  HYPERLINK "http://http-server.carleton.ca/~vpopov/documents/Russian_Analytical_Digest_48%5B1%5D-OCT2008.pdf" After 10 Years of Growth, the Russian Economy May Be Losing Steam. - Russian Analytical Digest,No. 48, October 17, 2008. ( HYPERLINK "http://http-server.carleton.ca/~vpopov/documents/Russian_Analytical_Digest_48%5B1%5D-OCT2008.pdf" http://http-server.carleton.ca/~vpopov/documents/Russian_Analytical_Digest_48%5B1%5D-OCT2008.pdf) 5. Foreign trade, FDI, capital flows, balance of payments. Integration and disintegration. *Gregory, Paul and Stuart, Robert. Russian and Soviet Economic Performance and Structure. Harper Collins College Publisher, 6th edition, 1998, ch. 9 IMF, World Bank, OECD, EBRD. A Study of the Soviet Economy, 1991, Vol. 1,2,3, ch. III.4, IV.3-IV.4; Appendix II.3, II.4. *Lavigne, Marie. Conditions for Accession to the EU. Comparative Economic Studies, Fall 1998, Vol. 30, No. 3, pp. 38-57. Lavigne, Marie. The Economics of Transition. From Socialist Economy to Market Economy. MacMillan Press Ltd., 1999, ch. 6 (Transition through breaking up). Olcott, Martha B., Aslund, Anders, and Garnet, Sherman W. Getting It Wrong. Regional Cooperation and the Commonwealth of Independent States. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington, D.C., 1999, ch. 2. *EBRD Transition Report, 1997, Ch. 3-6; 2001, Ch.5. 6. Privatization. Financial system, control over corporations and investment financing. *World Development Report. From Plan to Market. World Bank, 1996, Ch. 3, 6. *Popov, V. The Financial System in Russia as Compared to Other Transition Economies: The Anglo-American versus the German-Japanese Model - Comparative Economic Studies , No. 1, 1999 ( HYPERLINK "http://www.nes.ru/~vpopov/documents/FINSYS.pdf" http://www.nes.ru/~vpopov/documents/FINSYS.pdf). In Russian Popov V. Puzzles for the financial analyst. Expert, 1999, October 10 ( HYPERLINK "http://www.nes.ru/~vpopov/documents/Konstruktor%20dlya%20finansysta.pdf" http://www.nes.ru/~vpopov/documents/Konstruktor%20dlya%20finansysta.pdf). *EBRD Transition Report, 1998, Ch. 5-8. Roland, Gerard. Transition and Economics: Politics, Markets, and Firms. MIT Press. Cambridge, MA, London, 2000, ch. 4,10, 12. 7. Social issues and social policy in transition economies. 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Russian labour market: adaptation without restructuring. M. HSE, 2001. *G.A. Cornia. Transition Approaches, Institutions and Income Inequality. In: HYPERLINK "http://www.oup.co.uk/isbn/0-19-924218-6"Transition and Institutions: The Experience of Gradual and Late Reformers. Edited by HYPERLINK "../whoswho/cornia.htm"Giovanni Andrea Cornia and Vladimir Popov. WIDER, OUP, 2001. Ch. 12 *Cornia, A. (1997). Labor Market Shocks, Psychological Stress and the Transitions Mortality Crisis. WIDER/UNU, Helsinki, April 1997. Shapiro, J.(1995). The Russian mortality crisis and its causes. In: Aslund A, ed. Russian economic reform at risk. 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