Research shows getting tough on methane could reduce warming by 0.3 C

If Canada and other countries are serious about preventing global temperatures from rising more than 1.5 C, scientists say they should start with tougher regulations to slash methane pollution

The Narwhal, October 21, 2021��

By Ali Raza

Professor Matthew Johnson says there’s a clear starting point for governments looking to stabilize the atmosphere to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas pollution.

While decision makers often talk about the carbon dioxide emissions produced during combustion of fossil fuels, Johnson, a researcher from �Ӱ�ԭ�� University, notes there is a much more powerful greenhouse gas that must not be forgotten.

“If we’re serious about net-zero, at any date, by 2050, the absolute first thing that has to go to zero is methane,” Johnson tells The Narwhal in an interview.

Johnson recently co-authored a study that found oil and gas companies, along with governments, are underestimating the amount of methane that is leaking from oil and gas production. The initial research found methane emission levels in British Columbia were 1.6 to 2.2 times higher than current federal inventory estimates.

As his team continues to survey 8,000 sites across the country, there is mounting evidence from a range of scientific studies and assessments, including the��, that indicates existing government policies are failing to adequately tackle the methane emissions that could trigger some of the worst potential outcomes of the climate crisis.

At the same time, some of the research shows how governments and industry can get ahead of the problem and achieve significant reductions in global heating, faster than similar action that is aimed at slashing CO2 pollution.

“The first step to any reduction has to be to measure it,” Johnson says. “I think the regulations we have are an important first step, but I think people would be naive to think that we aren’t going to have to go a whole lot further.”

In a new appearing in the prestigious journal Remote Sensing of Environment, the Energy & Emissions Research Lab (EERL) has quantitatively and transparently tested a new airborne LiDAR technology developed by Bridger Photonics Inc., which has the potential to transform how oil and gas sector methane sources are detected, quantified, and mitigated.�� Airborne measurements using Bridger’s Gas Mapping LiDAR™ (GML) technology were performed at active oil and gas facilities in Northern British Columbia, Canada, while a ground team moved beneath the plane deploying and redeploying wind sensors at a subset of sites as part of evaluating measurement uncertainties due to uncertain wind data.�� However, unbeknownst to Bridger, the EERL ground crew was also able to perform controlled methane releases at several sites, providing a true, blinded assessment of the sensitivity of the Bridger technology and its ability to find sources without knowing where to look or even that an evaluation was underway.�� Overall the EERL team was able to catch up with the plane at 48 unique sites completing 65 wind measurements (some sites were visited again by the aircraft on subsequent days) as well as 29 controlled methane releases at 22 distinct sites during the 5-day aerial survey.

These data give unique insight into the current real-world performance of the Bridger technology and provide invaluable data for understanding the potential utility of this or similar airborne measurement technology in meeting regulatory requirements and in interpreting field measurement data to develop better inventories and drive mitigation of emissions.

Results were used to derive a detection sensitivity limit as a function of wind speed and demonstrate that Bridger’s GML technology it is capable of detecting, locating, and quantifying individual sources at or below the magnitudes of recent regulated venting limits. ��Most importantly, this publication lays the groundwork for upcoming analyses by EERL using airborne survey data to help re-derive methane inventories for oil and gas activity in British Columbia and beyond.

Publication

M.R. Johnson, D.R. Tyner, A.J. Szekeres (2021), Blinded evaluation of airborne methane source detection using Bridger Photonics LiDAR, Remote Sensing of Environment, Volume 259, 112418. (doi: )

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But there’s room for improvement for both, and a question mark over whether either set of regulations would meet Canada’s methane reduction targets.

to read the full story in CBC News

9422 oil sites in Alberta

Through detailed analysis of mitigation potential at nearly 10,000 individual sites, the study determined a 45-per-cent reduction in reported vented methane at upstream oil and heavy oil production sites – in line with federal and provincial targets — is economically efficient and feasible.

“There are up front capital costs to industry in the range of $150 million to $500 million depending on the scenario considered, but these are largely offset by revenue from capture of saleable gas into pipelines or reduced reliance on supplementary propane use at production sites,” said Tyner, a research associate at the Energy and Emissions Research Lab (EERL) within the Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering. ��“The net average cost to industry is less than $2.50 per tonne CO2e and some sites could be profitable depending on the scenario considered.”

“Compared to federal and provincial carbon price targets of $30 to $50 per tonne, these actions are incredibly cheap,” added Johnson, a Canada Research Professor in �Ӱ�ԭ��’s Faculty of Engineering and Design and head of EERL.�� “They represent some of the most cost-effective actions available and show why governments are right to focus on near-term methane reductions as a key opportunity in battling climate change.”

“Given the potential returns, the initial capital costs would be better classed as an investment in the Canadian energy sector. Beyond the obvious environmental benefits, the economic spinoffs for engineering service providers and technology companies would be significant.�� This is an important opportunity for improving competitiveness and reducing the carbon footprint of Canadian energy development.”

The paper evaluated six types of mitigation methods, including recovery of gas into pipelines to sell, using gas for on-site process heating requirements, or disposal via combustion.

Reported venting volumes in Alberta in 2015

The paper notes there are other important sources of methane emissions in the oil and gas sector beyond those specifically considered in the analysis.�� However, the reduction opportunities at the selected sites exceed the nominal 45-per-cent reduction target and could partially offset the challenges of addressing methane emissions from fugitive and unreported venting sources.

The �Ӱ�ԭ�� researchers also considered the implications of their widely cited, recently published airborne methane measurement study that suggested reported venting at heavy oil sites in Alberta is underestimated by as much as 4.9 times.

“There is a further silver lining in this research – the larger volumes of released methane suggested by field measurements actually improve the economics of mitigating the gas,” said Johnson. ��“The analysis suggests that with more methane available, sector-wide methane reductions of 34 per cent are economically achievable, even before considering other methane sources such as fugitive leaks and pneumatic venting,” added Tyner.

“These findings serve as a prime example of the leading research being performed every day at �Ӱ�ԭ��,” said Fred Afagh, interim dean of the Faculty of Engineering and Design. “Our researchers are continually developing real-world solutions that benefit our environment and society as a whole.”

A stark new report from the global scientific authority on climate change this month said governments must make “rapid, far-reaching and unprecedented changes in all aspects of society” to avoid disastrous levels of global warming.

The report issued by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), said the planet will reach the crucial threshold of 1.5 C above pre-industrial levels by as early as 2030 based on current levels of greenhouse gas emissions, precipitating the risk of extreme drought, wildfires, floods and food shortages for hundreds of millions of people.

The planet is already two-thirds of the way there, with global temperatures having warmed about 1 C.

Canada would have to cut its emissions almost in half over the next 12 years to meet the stiffer targets dozens of international climate change experts say are required to prevent catastrophic results from global warming.

A copy of the �Ӱ�ԭ�� paper is available here��

Ph.D. candidate Simon Festa-Bianchet with the OTEMS technology control station which operates remotely from the �Ӱ�ԭ�� Energy and Emissions Research Lab (EERL) in Ottawa

Prime Minister Trudeau and Minister Sohi visited a prototype laser-based optical technology for measuring liquid storage tank emissions. This first generation of the Optical Tank Emissions Measurement System (OTEMS) has been installed in Devon, Alberta since 2016 on a 150 barrel pentane tank and is remotely operated by EERL researchers from �Ӱ�ԭ�� University. Liquid storage tanks are a key source of methane and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) throughout the oil and gas sector. Current emission estimates are based on a semi-epirical model developed in the Unites States using limited data to validate its applicability which are questionably relevant for a colder Canadian climate. Research is focused on developing a novel Canadian measurement technology that will be uniquely capable of direct emissions flux measurements on one of the most critical energy sector sources. This exciting project is the subject of Ph.D. student Simon Festa-Bianchet’s thesis work, the ultimate goals of which are to develop improved emissions models and inventories, suport effective standards, regulations and best management practices, and enable quantified mitigation actions.

Methane is a potent climate forcer and reducing its release into the atmosphere is an important near term climate change strategy. The oil and gas sector is one of the largest sources of methane emissions in North America.�� Fugitive emissions, or unexpected and unintentional emissions such as those from leaking components, can often be mitigated economically through maintenance and repair. Unfortunately, as there may be thousands of potential gas sources in any facility (e.g. fittings, valves etc.), and only a very small number are typically responsible for the majority of gas released.�� Because current manual survey approaches are generally only performed sporadically, fugitive emission sources can release gas for months without being noticed.

Fig. 8. Predicted emissions at 1 m height using 30-sec transient ideal wind data with marked actual release locations (white circles) and 50-m sensor grid (white points) for a) linear scale, b) log scale, c) linear scale with regional filter, and d) log scale with regional filter. Emission centroids are marked with black dots.

Continuous sensor monitoring is an enticing alternative. As presented in the paper, a sparse network of continuous concentration sensors combined with wind information could be used to detect and locate new leaks as they emerge, as well as determine the size of the previously unknown source(s). The approach would greatly speed up maintenance and repair, directly reducing methane emission. This paper demonstrates the viability of this approach in a range of simulated scenarios.�� Continuing research is focused on reducing computational cost to simplify practical implementation.