{"id":39432,"date":"2020-10-05T10:09:44","date_gmt":"2020-10-05T14:09:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/economics\/?p=39432"},"modified":"2025-06-11T09:08:57","modified_gmt":"2025-06-11T13:08:57","slug":"ph-d-student-shafiullah-qureshis-paper-accepted-at-the-economics-bulletin","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/economics\/2020\/ph-d-student-shafiullah-qureshis-paper-accepted-at-the-economics-bulletin\/","title":{"rendered":"Ph.D. student Shafiullah Qureshi&#8217;s paper accepted at the Economics Bulletin!"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<section class=\"w-screen px-6 cu-section cu-section--white ml-offset-center md:px-8 lg:px-14\">\n    <div class=\"space-y-6 cu-max-w-child-5xl  md:space-y-10 cu-prose-first-last\">\n\n            <div class=\"cu-textmedia flex flex-col lg:flex-row mx-auto gap-6 md:gap-10 my-6 md:my-12 first:mt-0 max-w-5xl\">\n        <div class=\"justify-start cu-textmedia-content cu-prose-first-last\" style=\"flex: 0 0 100%;\">\n            <header class=\"font-light prose-xl cu-pageheader md:prose-2xl cu-component-updated cu-prose-first-last\">\n                                    <h1 class=\"cu-prose-first-last font-semibold !mt-2 mb-4 md:mb-6 relative after:absolute after:h-px after:bottom-0 after:bg-cu-red after:left-px text-3xl md:text-4xl lg:text-5xl lg:leading-[3.5rem] pb-5 after:w-10 text-cu-black-700 not-prose\">\n                        Ph.D. student Shafiullah Qureshi&#8217;s paper accepted at the Economics Bulletin!\n                    <\/h1>\n                \n                                \n                            <\/header>\n\n                    <\/div>\n\n            <\/div>\n\n    <\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n<p>Congratulations to Ph.D. student <a href=\"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/economics\/people\/qureshi-shafiullah\/\">Shafiullah Qureshi<\/a>! His paper \u201cPredicting the COVID-19 pandemic in Canada and the US&#8221;, co-authored with <a href=\"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/economics\/people\/chu-ba-m\/\">Professor Ba Chu<\/a>, has been accepted for publication in <i>Economics Bulletin<\/i> &#8211; an open-access letters journal providing free and rapid scientific communication.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><span class=\"markj7ahz6d0t SSBqA0O5vTLfa9GC1wxGQ\" data-markjs=\"true\">Congratulations,&nbsp;<\/span>Shafiullah and Ba on your peer-reviewed publication!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Abstract<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We propose a time series model with the quartic trend function to make short-term forecasts of the COVID-19 confirmed cases in Canada and the U.S. Our one- to seven- days ahead out-of-sample forecast exercise demonstrates that the quartic trend model can produce very competitive short-term forecasts relative to the benchmark Susceptible, Infected, and Recovered (SIR) model. The bootstrap distance-based test of independence and the XGBoost algorithm reveals a strong link between the coronavirus case count and relevant Google Trends features (defined by search intensities of various keywords that the public entered in the Google internet search engine during this pandemic). Moreover, dynamic linear panel data models suggest a statistically significant relationship between the coronavirus case count and people\u2019s mobility trend provided by Google Mobility Reports (GMR) during the pandemic period.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Congratulations to Ph.D. student Shafiullah Qureshi! His paper \u201cPredicting the COVID-19 pandemic in Canada and the US&#8221;, co-authored with Professor Ba Chu, has been accepted for publication in Economics Bulletin &#8211; an open-access letters journal providing free and rapid scientific communication. Congratulations,&nbsp;Shafiullah and Ba on your peer-reviewed publication! Abstract We propose a time series model [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":36249,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-39432","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news"],"acf":{"cu_post_thumbnail":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39432","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=39432"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39432\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":39433,"href":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39432\/revisions\/39433"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/36249"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=39432"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=39432"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/carleton.ca\/economics\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=39432"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}