Foreign Interference in a Geopolitical Context PIFI Submission

The threat of foreign interference continues to grow and evolve as the geopolitical structure of the world changes. Canada is often targeted by adversaries, and allies, who seek to advance their interests through transnational means, such as mobilising diaspora groups and hybrid tactics. These actions are typically not considered a type of open warfare, but they are efforts to both influence and interfere in a country’s internal economic and political processes. As we know, democratic states, like Canada, cannot guarantee complete immunity from interference without becoming the enemies of their own open societies. To make open societies fully resistant to harmful influences would render them closed societies. At the same time, the risks that interference poses from both friend and foe should not be an excuse to foreclose on opportunities for growth and investment. Canada is, ultimately, a trading nation and, as a middle power, has a degree of agency that should be fully exploited to advance economic and political opportunities. The desire for a strong, secure Canada need not undermine the country’s competitiveness and productivity.

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“This is it — they are going to arrest us all and execute us. All for Shell.” This statement was made by Ken Saro-Wiwa, a leader of the Movement for the Survival of the Ogoni People (MOSAP) two weeks before he was arrested in May of 1994. Highlighting Shell’s role in directing and arming the Nigerian military to repress dissent toward corporate activities, MOSAP gained international attention and motivated anti-shell campaigns across the world. Over the last decade, similar incidents of corporate misconduct in India, China, Colombia, Chad and Sudan have led to a growing debate surrounding the responsibility and accountability of corporations operating outside their home states. This paper seeks to address the issue of human rights in the era of increasing globalization of capital and exterritorial operations of corporations, particularly in zones of conflict. The existing governance structure for corporations will be evaluated at a national and international level and voluntary codes of conduct and multilateral efforts at establishing business principles will be reviewed. Evidence will be summarized to suggest that national legislation and voluntary corporate codes of conduct are currently an inadequate means of protecting human rights. In order to improve business practices, international efforts must create an external system of compliance and monitoring which ensures corporations adopt conflict-sensitive policies which positively contribute to peace, prosperity and stability for all their stakeholders.

Corporate Crime in a Globalized Economy

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In January 2004, Criminal Intelligence Service Canada (CISC) initiated Project SOOTHSAYER. The goal of the project was to develop a fully functional strategic early warning system (SEWS) for organized and serious crime in Canada. The project had three broad objectives: a) the development of a methodology suited to warning for law enforcement; b) the establishment of a reporting mechanism; and c) the development of dissemination and communications methods (i.e. a product line). SEWS is not to be confused with crime pattern analysis, which looks at specific crime types such as burglaries and assaults. Rather, SEWS focuses on emergency events and phenomena – be they local, national or international, demographic, economic or technological – that could potentially alter the organized and serious crime situation in Canada. Although strategic warning systems have been utilized in other fields such as public health and national defence, law enforcement has only begun to understand the utility of strategic analysis and warning in its fight against organized crime. Thus, CISC sought out the support of the Country Indicators for Foreign Policy (CIFP) project at �Ӱ�ԭ�� University, which had a demonstrated expertise in warning for state failure, risk assessment, and early warning. The purpose of this paper is to present the methodological approach developed by CISC in partnership with CIFP.

Creating an Organized Crime Sentinal: Towards the Development and Implementation of a Strategic Early Warning Methodology for Law Enforcement

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Boris Yeltsin once characterized his country as a “Criminal Superpower.” Few would dispute the fact that Russia’s post-Soviet transition has been plagued by unprecedented levels of criminal activity. Consensus quickly breaks down when one tries to identify the underlying causes of that criminality, however. Commentators have proposed a variety of economic, political, and socio-psychological explanations for the phenomenon, ranging from the persuasive to the paranoid; some in the early 1990s even suggested that the rise in Russian crime was actually part of a communist plot. Conspiracy theories aside, the issue remains one of key importance, as answers are not only necessary for Russia in its continuing quest for stability and order, but also provide crucial insights into the recent growth of Eastern European based crime in Western Europe, the United States, and Canada.

Russia: Criminogenic Early Warning and Indicator Survey 1991-1997

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In January 2004, Criminal Intelligence Service Canada (CISC) initiated Project SOOTHSAYER. The goal of the project was to develop a strategic early warning system (SEWS) for organized and serious crime in Canada. The project had three broad objectives: I) the development of a methodology suited to intelligence warning for law enforcement; II) the establishment of a reporting mechanism; and III) the development of dissemination and communications methods (i.e. a product line). SEWS focuses on emergent events and phenomena – be they local, national or international, demographic, economic or technological – that could potentially alter the organized and serious crime situation in Canada. CISC sought out the support of the Country Indicators for Foreign Policy (CIFP) at the Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, �Ӱ�ԭ�� University, which had a demonstrated expertise in warning for state failure, risk assessment and early warning. A central element of this venture was the development of the project’s scanning component, known as the SENTINEL Watch List. This report, commissioned by CISC and produced by CIFP, is the essential background to the SENTINEL.

Upheaval in Haiti: The Criminal Threat to Canada

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In January 2004, Criminal Intelligence Service Canada (CISC) initiated Project SOOTHSAYER. The goal of the project was to develop a strategic early warning system (SEWS) for organized and serious crime in Canada. The project had three broad objectives: I) the development of a methodology suited to intelligence warning for law enforcement; II) the establishment of a reporting mechanism; and III) the development of dissemination and communications methods (i.e. a product line). SEWS focuses on emergent events and phenomena – be they local, national or international, demographic, economic or technological – that could potentially alter the organized and serious crime situation in Canada. CISC sought out the support of the Country Indicators for Foreign Policy (CIFP) at the Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, �Ӱ�ԭ�� University, which had a demonstrated expertise in warning for state failure, risk assessment and early warning. A central element of this venture was the development of the project’s scanning component, known as the SENTINEL Watch List. This report, commissioned by the CISC and produced by CIFP, is the essential background to one of the project’s pilot SENTINEL on the state of the methamphetamine market in Canada and the role of organized crime within it.

The Potential Expansion of Methamphetamine Production and Distribution in Canada

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According to a majority of experts in the field of terrorism and counterterrorism, the presence of subversive groups and organizations on the internet has grown, and continues to grow at an alarming pace. Estimates on the number of active terrorist websites currently on the net vary. However, there is a consensus that the total number of websites has grown from under one hundred in 1996, to well over 5,000 today. In 2006, all active terrorist groups (including those organizations listed under the US Antiterrorism and Effective Death Penalty Act of 1996) have established their presence, in some form, on the internet. Indeed, the internet was a central tool used in the planning and coordination of the September 11th, 2001 attacks on New York and Washington. As officials and experts now know, internet traffic use by terrorists and their associates spiked noticeably prior to the attacks, indicating the need to more effectively monitor and interpret the use of the internet by subversive groups such as Al Qaeda. This finding begs the question: What is the relationship between subversive groups and individuals (and more importantly terrorists) and the internet?

A Framework for Understanding Terrorist Use of the Internet

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This article assesses the impact of diaspora communities (defined as transnational populations that play an active role in both home and adoptive societies simultaneously) on instability and insecurity in their home countries, and contributes some preliminary thoughts on the potential for diaspora communities to contribute to peace building there. Haitian and Jamaican diasporas are presented as case studies. The article explores the nature of ‘conflict’ in both countries using two analytical lenses, one drawing on traditional theories of peace and conflict found in the relevant literature, and another from the views of diaspora members themselves. Taken together, the two perspectives identify a range of ‘drivers’ perpetuating persistent low-intensity violence, crime, and corruption in both countries. The study then identifies a variety of positive contributions that diaspora populations can and do make to their countries of origin, including through remittance flows, community-based NGOs, entrepreneurial endeavours, knowledge transfer, and political entrepreneurship. However, the study also suggests that a number of factors at the societal and national levels, such as national policy frameworks for diaspora engagement, significantly condition the extent and effectiveness of diaspora involvement. Clearly, Haiti and Jamaica’s common status as small island developing states has resulted in some similarity in the two countries’ diaspora experiences. Nevertheless, the unique socio-political and economic realities of each country have profoundly influenced the nature and magnitude of diaspora-home country relations. Moreover, these relations tend to be both complex in nature and ambiguous in effect, and further rigorous analysis is needed to clarify the causal relationships between each country’s socio-economic stability and the activities of their respective diaspora communities. Such research will facilitate the development of more effective ways to encourage positive diaspora engagement, especially in states with a history of conflict and/or civil violence

Jamaica Diaspora and Organized Crime

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Jamaica gained independence from Britain in 1962, and the Jamaican Labour Party (JLP) and the People’s National Party (PNP) have since shared power through free and fair elections. Prime Minister Percival J. Patterson (PNP) has been leading the country since 1992 but recently announced he would step down. Party leadership elections have been announced for February 2006. There are two serious candidates to replace him as party leader and de facto Prime Minister: Peter Philips and Portia Simpson-Miller. Phillips is the Minister of National Security and has greater support and backing within Parliament and the PNP, while Simpson-Miller, the Minister of Local Government, Community Development and Sports, has greater grassroots support. National elections must be held some time in 2007.

Jamaica Stability and Instability: Implications for Canada

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Recent surveys indicate that at least one in ten and possibly as many as one in five Americans have been a victim of some form of identity theft. Canadian statistics may be similar. In addition, media reports of identity theft have proliferated in recent months; however, this trend is partially offset by an increasing number of arrests and successful prosecutions related to identity theft.

Sentinel Watch List

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