Since its independence in 1960 the CAR has faced incredible instability with continual political upheavals, coups, and struggles for power. At the heart of the issue is a number of divisions in the country including political affiliation, religion, land, and ethnicity. These divisions have led to a multitude of armed groups within the CAR pursuing their own agendas. While the problems in the CAR are extremely complex, the Central African Republic Electoral Democracy Initiative (CAREDI) aims to monitor and secure the democratic process of voting for the CAR’s upcoming local elections, the first of their kind since 1988. This initiative could provide citizens with a safe democratic process while giving legitimacy to the election results, and mitigating violence. Subsequently providing citizens with legitimate local governance to work from the bottom up. Due to the mandate’s nature, the initiative will also leave the CAR with a greater capacity for local electoral monitoring in the future. While CAREDI will not solve the complex issues of the CAR, it will provide citizens with the opportunity to safely cast their vote for a legitimate local government. As a result, citizens of the CAR may finally have credible representation at the local level. This may incentivize local democratic, political, and civil society participation to address the nation’s issues.

CAREDI

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To be implemented over a minimum of two years, the Water Infrastructure and Education Program (WIEP) is purposed with providing access to potable water and education for water safety and water treatment to Haitians. The program is oriented towards providing water infrastructure that can withstand natural disasters, provides checks on the transitional government’s capacity to provide basic resources educations for the maintenance of sanitation services. This will reduce the effects of humanitarian crises, promote education in environmental issues, encourage transitional governance and promote economic development. The program will work in conjunction with the UNDP via NGOS for the provision, installation and maintenance of sustainable water, wastewater, and irrigation infrastructure. This work will be achieved through the Government of Canada’s partnership with the UNDP, Haiti’s transitional government and NGOs for reporting mechanisms and the provision of resources and education access.  WIEP Haiti Policy Brief

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Gang violence, fueled by corrupt and elite oligarchs has exacerbated the already declining
human development situation in Haiti with a great deal of Haitians now experiencing alarming levels
of food insecurity. Additionally, as gang violence expands from the occupied capital of Port-au-Prince
into neighbouring areas like Cité Soleil, many youths with no other viable opportunities are being
recruited and exploited by gang forces. The Haitian Intervention Program for Youth (H.I.P.Y) is a
project aimed to work with local NGOs within the Cité Soleil neighbourhood to strengthen food
security with gardening knowledge and skills production. This program will also create a youth
soccer league, aimed to deter youth away from the violence that surrounds them, and instead
provide safe and community-oriented environments. This project proposal will begin by addressing
the logistical description of the project, including stakeholders and project timeline, then will provide
a pre-project risk assessment before highlighting the monitoring process and concluding with a
summary of how the post-project impact will be measured. In collaboration with GAC and local
NGOs, this project hopes to address food insecurity while also providing opportunities for
disaffected youth amid a complex and dangerous conflict.

Haitian Intervention Program for Youth – HIPY

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HOP aims to improve the security and social situation in Port-au-Prince through the development an
implementation of a community policing policy with the Haitian National Police (HNP). The community policing approach will contribute to moving past a system that relies heavily on punishment and force, which to date has proved ineffective, and will focus on collaborating with civil society and constructive problem-solving. Led by Global Affairs Canada (GAC), HOP has a budget of 20 million dollars (Canadian) and will provide comprehensive community policing training to 100 recruits and facilitate engaged dialogue between the police and the people of Port-au-Prince over two years.

Haitian Overhaul in Policing – HOP

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Aid Effectiveness: Carment Samy

The objective of this paper is to focus on fragility research findings and examine what
works or does not work in development aid and development cooperation in fragile and conflict affected contexts. We draw on our own research findings as well as country-level studies. We examine questions of aid effectiveness in the context of supporting good governance in fragile states in the first part of the paper. We then consider the impact of COVID-19 and implications
for aid effectiveness in fragile states in the second part. In the third and final section we briefly
consider how the war in Ukraine is impacting fragile states and the long-term prospects for aid
effectiveness in an era of geopolitical rivalry and great power competition.

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Haiti Conflict Diagnostic – 2023

Haiti is facing multifaceted and serious challenges. Government institutions have ceased to
function effectively, and gangs, backed by the wealthy oligarchs, control nearly two-thirds of the
country. Frequent natural disasters further exacerbate the multitude of crises confronting Haiti.
While there is certainty about the severity of the situation, there are few actors with the
capacity and willingness to adequately address it. Many of the issue areas examined in this
diagnostic are closely interrelated to each other. In addition to data on the Country Indicators
for Foreign Policy’s (CIFP) nine main indicator clusters, this diagnostic draws on research from
other relevant sources where appropriate. Four of the nine indicator clusters are considered
high-risk factors that will increase the likelihood of further conflict. The effects of five of the
clusters are worsening and that of the rest are stable. The diagnostic projects a best, worst, and
most likely scenario in the next six months.

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CAR Conflict Diagnostic 2023

The Central African Republic (CAR) was thought to be on the path to stability in 2019, but further fighting erupted in late
2020 due to contested elections. This has continued a cycle of violence and unrest, leading to a deteriorating humanitarian
situation. The aim of this diagnostic is to evaluate the current situation using a risk assessment methodology. Key trends
and major risks, associated with nine thematic clusters, are used to highlight three potential scenarios in the short to
medium term. Despite attempts to quell armed groups, ongoing violence and ethnic tensions remain major obstacles to
achieving stability.

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Myanmar Conflict Diagnostic 2023

The current conflict in Myanmar began with the 2021 coup d’état. The conflict between the ruling junta and pro-democracy movement has accelerated environmental degradation and hurt Myanmar’s economic standing. Demographic stress has also worsened both from the junta’s lack of attention to urban infrastructure and its targeting of rural villages, increasing the number of refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs).¹ The return to military rule has caused a worsening trend for most indicators used to determine the degree of conflict. This diagnostic uses the methodology created by the Country Indicators for Foreign Policy to establish possible short-term scenarios based on indicators of conflict determining trend lines and degree of risk. The military coup has destabilized the country which has resulted in a return to military rule causing a worsening conflict trend and making any peaceful settlement unlikely in the near future.

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North Korea Conflict Diagnostic 2023

North Korea’s conflict with the international community is a high-risk and deteriorating situation.
Despite relative stability in governance and militarization, the interdependence of the central
government with the military and high levels of demographic stress are significant risk factors.
All key stakeholders have a negative impact, and no single entity can achieve positive
developments. The expected outcome is that the conflict will remain a frozen conflict in the next
six months, with North Korea continuing to expand its nuclear arsenal and increasing tensions in
the region. There is limited communication between North and South Korea, making it unlikely that
any major progress will be made towards resolving the conflict in the near future. North Korea’s
nuclear development is a serious threat to peace, security, and the international non-proliferation
regime, with the South Korean government and other states making ongoing efforts to resolve the
issue.i

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2022 Afghanistan Conflict Diagnostic

The Taliban’s ascension to power in Afghanistan in August of 2021 has presented a fundamental shift in the trajectory of the future of the country’s political, economic, and humanitarian sectors. The lack of access to international assistance in the wake of the change in governance has led the country to near extreme poverty, impending famine, mass malnutrition, and a failing economy. Regional and
environmental factors only exacerbate these negative effects. The Taliban’s history of violating the rights of women and ethnic minorities only furthers the current humanitarian crisis enveloping the country. This conflict diagnostic uses data trends and risk assessment indicators from the Country Indicators for Foreign Policy Project (CIFP) to analyze the current status of the conflict in Afghanistan, as of 2022. This report draws on historical context, conflict risk assessment, and analysis of key stakeholders to come to three projected scenarios for the conflict in Afghanistan, based on current trajectories

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