Aid Effectiveness: Carment Samy

The objective of this paper is to focus on fragility research findings and examine what
works or does not work in development aid and development cooperation in fragile and conflict affected contexts. We draw on our own research findings as well as country-level studies. We examine questions of aid effectiveness in the context of supporting good governance in fragile states in the first part of the paper. We then consider the impact of COVID-19 and implications
for aid effectiveness in fragile states in the second part. In the third and final section we briefly
consider how the war in Ukraine is impacting fragile states and the long-term prospects for aid
effectiveness in an era of geopolitical rivalry and great power competition.

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Integrity Watch Afghanistan  Research Methods Handbook

The handbook is designed as a practical reference for researchers in the field, covering the how, what, and when of policy-oriented research. It is neither comprehensive in scope nor does it dwell on the theories underpinning its recommendations.

References with hyperlinks are included for detailed reading and follow up.

The handbook guides the reader through three steps:

1. Research, needs analysis, and evaluation design;
2. Implementation of research and evaluation methodologies; and
3.  Research and evaluation presentation.

Part 1 explains three different designs: research needs analysis, and evaluation design. The research design section discusses how to establish  research objectives and a  research proposal. These objectives are then tied to a suitable conceptual framework, and these concepts are then operationalized into observable or measurable variables. Here there is a discussion of internal validity, variable-based research designs, and their use cases. The needs analysis section includes its purpose and basic steps.

Finally, the evaluation design provides ideas on  pre-assessment analyses, questions, and approaches for answering result-based as well as impact evaluations. A section on peace and conflict impact analysis is included as a special kind of evaluation tool.  That is followed by an  overview of general ethical considerations and research standards to be applied to the study.

Part 2 focuses on the implementation of research and evaluation methodologies. The focus is on three data collection methods: sampling, conducting surveys, and focus groups. Practical considerations including data collection and managing evaluations are also discussed.

Part 3 outlines research presentation concepts with a focus on policy-oriented report writing. This section identifies different types of policy briefs with their use-cases, a section-by-section guide on how to write a policy paper, guidelines on citations and referencing using the Chicago Manual of Style 17áµ—Ę° edition Notes-Bibliography (NB) system, and innovative tools to support the research and report-writing process.

Beyond an initial reading of Part 1 on research design, this handbook is meant to be a reference and does not need to be read in chronological order. Rather, it should be consulted as and when needed throughout the course of a research project.

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2020 CIFP Fragility Report

Fragile and Conflict-Affected States (FCAS) remain more relevant than ever. After a brief period of declining fragility at the turn of the century, FCAS have become more prominent as their precarious situation worsens in a COVID 19 world. In the last decade or so, we have seen an increase in armed conflicts and violence around the world. The COVID 19 crisis has further exacerbated FCAS performance in several important ways by further weakening their capacity for response and prevention and by delinking their economies from global financial, trade and aid flows.

In our latest ranking presented in this report, Chad tops the list of FCAS. Sudan, Somalia, the Central African Republic and South Sudan make up the top five. Ranks five to ten are occupied, in order, by Yemen, Afghanistan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, West Bank and Gaza, and Eritrea. A year-over-year comparison with previous rankings from the Country Indicators for Foreign Policy (CIFP) project shows that Somalia, Chad, the Central African Republic, Afghanistan, Sudan and South Sudan rank consistently among the top poor performers and usually almost always within the top five for several years. These are countries that we would typically characterize as being trapped in fragility.

The majority of the top 20 most fragile states are located in Sub-Saharan Africa, a finding that is consistent with our historical data (). The rest are in the Middle East and North Africa, namely Syria, Yemen and the West Bank and Gaza, and in Central and South Asia, namely Afghanistan and Pakistan. These regional distributions find concordance in our composite analysis of fragility using the Authority, Legitimacy and Capacity (ALC) cluster scores. The ALC and regional distribution assessments enable policy makers to evaluate the different characteristics of stateness, namely in terms of identifying the sources and extent of both weaknesses and strengths; it also assists policymakers in their decisions on where and how to engage by providing additional nuance to the question of fragility. Read it here:

2020 CIFP Fragility Report

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The euphoria that came with the end of the Cold War has been dampened by the continuing outbreak of deadly conflict throughout the world. Some of these conflicts have resulted in the complete breakdown of governments, leading to what has been dubbed “failed states.” As Michael Ignatieff argued in 1993, “huge sections of the world’s population have won the right of self determination on the cruelest possible terms: they have been simply left to fend for themselves. Not surprisingly, their nation-states are collapsing”.  Robert Kaplan’s highly influential 1994 Atlantic Monthly article on the “The Coming Anarchy” offered a more bleak assessment of state failure in Africa. In this neo-Malthusian perspective – the world – especially the South – is beset by increasing crises generated by fast-growing populations, demographic changes and weakening state capacity to regulate conflict.

Anticipating State Failure

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This chapter examines Small Island Developing State (SIDS) fragility with a specific focus on identifying risk indicators for the purposes of early warning. The chapter unfolds in six parts. Following this introduction, we examine current research themes on early warning and risk assessment. In the third part of the paper we assess the linkages, both theoretical and policy related, on vulnerability and state development. In the fourth and fifth parts of the chapter we present preliminary findings on SIDS and fragility drawing on the Country Indicators for Foreign Policy project (CIFP). In the sixth and final part of the chapter we draw some preliminary conclusions and identify areas for further research.

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For about a decade now, practitioners and commentators of international politics have paid increasing attention to the issue of “failed” or “fragile states”. The overall results of so-called “external interventions” – the term here is used extensively and includes both coercive and non-coercive forms – in fragile contexts are mixed.

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Canada‟s failure to obtain a seat on the United Nations Security Council last year brought much attention to how far Canada‟s reputation has fallen. The reputation of Canadian diplomacy was historically held in high regard, first as a loyal yet sensible member of the British Empire, and then as a fervent multilateralist committed to advancing global cooperation and welfare. Canada nurtured and maintained this reputation for many decades, but lately this image has begun to tarnish from neglect.

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